Ukraine

Strange Times

Here is a lecture from 2015 that tells us what is going to happen in Ukraine. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JrMiSQAGOS4  This is not to assign blame to anyone. Political Science involves understanding what motivates our adversaries and allows us to predict behaviors of those adversaries. The lecture lays out the situation we are now living with. The video is 1hr and 15min long so I will give you the significant points.

1. Putin told us repeatedly for years that Russia would not tolerate Ukraine as a member of Nato or EU. Would the US allow China or Russia to establish a base in Mexico? Remember what happened with Russians in Cuba!
2. Economic sanctions will not deter Russian incursion.
3. Democracy as seen by an Autocrat.
4. We need Russia as an ally not an adversary for a number of reasons.
5. Ukraine voter sentiment.
6. 19^th century vs 21^st century thinking.
7. One possible aim of Putin is to destroy Ukraine so he has a weak compliant neighbor rather than one that is seeking to embrace the west.
8. The current situation has been predictable for more than a decade yet we did not manage to improve it and stumbled in anyway.

Russia has more active nuclear weapons that we do. I leave it to you dear reader, did we want to deal with this crisis now or not.

I believe that China will probably take this opportunity to push confrontation during this crisis.

On the first point above. Democracy is something that people should have the freedom to choose. We must decide if we are going to support that choice or not. If we are, we have not done enough in Ukraine. I am encouraged that the world’s reaction has been quicker and more complete than has ever been seen before. There are further sanctions available. The largest is to stop Russian gas and oil from being an option. That move would be costly for the entire world but it would be the most crippling of all to Russia, depriving their economy of revenue from their primary export. Let us pray for the Ukrainian people and that this new global response is effective.

A few things to keep in mind. Putin has been stirring the pot. Looking back at N Korea, Iraq, Iran, Syria, and Crimea. He will not stop until there is an actual military confrontation.

I am still researching this issue but the situation is changing hourly. I will post here frequently. If you wish to do the reading and or watching yourself, here are a few more links:

Starr Forum: The Trump-Putin Phenomenon – YouTube Julie Ioffe

The Putin Files: John Brennan – YouTube

The Putin Files: Masha Gessen – YouTube Masha Gessen Putin personal history.

My youtube channel. Leonard Lied – YouTube has the all if the videos mentioned above in one convenient place plus more.

Thank you for reading. Please reply and follow if you find value here.